Why The First IPO "Double" In Five Years May Not Be A Great Sign

Posted 05/20/11 by Jason Goepfert                                                                                       Archive »

 

Yesterday we touched on a few things to watch for related to the IPO market.  One of them was the performance of LinkedIn after its offering, and it's fair to say that the public had no problems with the initial valuation.

 

The stock more than doubled from its offering price, which is the first time we've seen that from a domestic IPO since Chipotle.  This kind of thing can really affect the sentiment of the market, especially given some of the recent signs of low bullish opinion (form AAII and Investor's Intelligence).

 

Based on this research paper from Professor Jay Ritter at the U of Florida (hat tip to Barry Ritholtz), we can go back to 1975 and look at other times a domestic IPO doubled from its offering price on the first day of trading.

 

What we're looking for are IPO "doubles" that can really pack a punch.

 

So we're only going to include IPOs that were about a year or more from the prior double.  This is to make sure that there was some shock value, as opposed to something that investors had grown used to.

 

The charts below show the S&P 500, along with these IPOs (the red dots).  The time frame includes three months prior to the IPO and nine months afterward.

 

 

The years 1998 - 2000 were just ridiculous with the number of doubles, so they had less shock value and weren't included in the charts above.  ADRs were not included in the list, and from what I can determine it has only been ADRs (all Chinese stocks) that have doubled since Chipotle.

 

Something that stuck out right away, and which isn't evident from the charts above, is that every single one of these IPOs occurred after the market had already staged major rallies in the months and years prior.  Investment bankers won't unload these unless there's demand.

 

Out of the 10 examples, there were 3 times that the S&P just kept chugging right along (1992, 1994 and 1997).

 

The other 7 times, the S&P found some trouble during the next 6 months or so.  Not necessarily major declines - there weren't any of those - but very choppy conditions, or short-term gains that ended up being erased.

 

I'm not sure what, if anything, we can conclude from this, but I am left with a feeling that we may be in for some increased volatility in both directions...especially if we now see a rush of other firms trying to take public money in the coming weeks.

 

 

 

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Prior Comments

 

05/17/11 - Margin Hikes On Silver Should Dampen Open Interest, Not Prices

 

05/12/11 - The Dollar Rallies Back Above Its 50-Day Average

 

04/07/11 - Government Shutdowns, Not Much To Worry About

 

04/06/11 - Newsletter Bears Plunge

 

03/30/11 - Consumer Confidence Plunges - A Long-Term Buy Signal

 

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